July 23, 2010

Sales & prices rising here, contrary to the nation yet again

—By Peter Francese

You wouldn’t know it from reading the gloomy national real estate news, but both home sales and median sale prices are increasing in nearly every New Hampshire county. Statewide, residential home sales rose 10 percent over June 2009 and median price in June was up 2 percent over last year. Condominium prices rose 6 percent, but sold listings jumped 14 percent over June 2009.

It must be increasingly difficult to deal with potential home buyers and sellers who only look at national news. But perhaps the most troublesome thing is how risk-averse mortgage lenders can become after seeing scary but misleading headlines. It’s an uphill battle fighting negative perceptions with mere facts, but here are some anyway.

The central fact: in so many ways, our state is not like the rest of the nation.

During the first six months of this year, statewide residential home sales reached almost 5,300 units, up 18 percent from the first half of last year, and the over 1,400 condos sales in the first half were 28 percent above last year. First half median residential and condominium prices rose 4 percent and 3 percent, respectively, over same period last year.

What makes our state depart so far from the national average? Could it be that New Hampshire home buyers are more independent minded and not as influenced by the national media? Possibly, but it also may be that the characteristics of home buyers in our state are significantly different from those in the other 49 states.

For example, in New Hampshire more than one in five adults (22 percent) are 45 to 54 years old, compared to just 19 percent nationally (Please see Chart I.). That’s important because that’s the age range where household income is the highest. We therefore have a more than average number of households who can qualify for a mortgage — no small feat these days — and thus are more likely to buy a home, if they wish.

Chart I also shows that 225,000 New Hampshire residents are Baby Boomers ages 45 to 54 years old, and another 175,000 are Boomers aged 55 to 64 years old. That latter age is when families are most likely to buy a second home, or in some cases sell their larger family home and perhaps purchase a smaller or more convenient one.

But the peak Baby Boom 45 to 54 age group is followed by two smaller ones (35 to 44 and 25 to 34), where both family income and the rate of home ownership is lower. On average, only 45 percent of households ages 25 to 34 are now homeowners, compared to 74 percent of those ages 45 to 54.

This data come to us from the Census Bureau’s estimates branch, which recently published its last population estimates until the 2010 Census results come out next spring. This data is available for every county. Any New Hampshire REALTOR can obtain a copy of charts 1 or 2 just for counties you serve by sending an e-mail to peter@francese.com.

 

Chart 2 shows the estimated changes in New Hampshire’s age profile over the past decade. The two key things to notice about this chart are the sharp increases in young adults, ages 18 to 24, and the rapid increases in 55- to 64-year-olds.

This means that we may soon see an increase in demand for small starter homes for young people in their twenties, as well as a sharp rise in demand for retirement homes, many of which may be condominiums.

It may be useful to keep the following two facts in mind. First, as the number of people over age 55 increases, a rising percentage of households will be headed by women and more of them will want to buy their own home for themselves and possibly for when their grandchildren visit.

Second, New Hampshire ranks first among New England states and sixth in the nation in the percent of two-earner married couples. This means greater demand for homes with high speed internet access and at least one home office, and maybe two.

 

The monthly and first half home sales data from NNEREN are shown below, sorted by percent change in residential sales year to date (January through June) compared to last year. Note that sales rose in every county, and 8 in 10 counties had double-digit increases. The sharpest rises were in Strafford, Grafton and Merrimack counties, and those big increases continued right through June.

Home price increases were modest, but positive in all but a couple of counties. The superior economic performance of our state (low unemployment rates and higher levels of economic activity) suggests strongly that those increases will almost certainly continue in future months.

According to the latest housing unit estimates from the Census Bureau, about half of New Hampshire’s 600,000 dwelling units were in Hillsborough (27 percent) and Rockingham (21 percent) counties. Those two counties also accounted for half (49 percent) of all home sales statewide and two-thirds (66 percent) of statewide condominium sales.

It’s noteworthy that since 2000, New Hampshire’s housing stock increased 9.7 percent at a time when the number of year-round residents rose only 7.2 percent. This suggests that there is still a robust market for second or vacation homes in our state.

County	Units sold Jan-June 2010	% change 2009-2010	Median $ Jan-June 2010	% change 2009-2010
Belknap	321	18%	$180,000	4%
Carroll	319	16%	$190,000	6%
Cheshire	261	4%	$160,000	-5%
Coos	154	10%	$91,000	52%
Grafton	362	28%	$173,275	4%
Hillsborough	1,389	10%	$232,200	1%
Merrimack	590	26%	$196,500	1%
Rockingham	1,211	22%	$264,500	3%
Strafford	500	30%	$199,900	5%
Sullivan	177	5%	$149,000	3%
Statewide	5,284	18%	$216,000	4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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