Our state’s residents are changing,
and it may impact home sales

—By Peter Francese

Well, we finally did it. According to the latest Census Bureau estimates, New Hampshire is now tied with Florida for the distinction of being the fourth oldest state in the nation.  Our median age went over 40 years old for the first time ever.

Here’s the 2008 top four lineup: Maine at 42.0, Vermont at 41.2, West Virginia at 40.6 followed by New Hampshire and Florida at 40.2 years old.  New Hampshire’s median age has risen three years since 2000, which is twice the nationwide increase of 1.5 years.

Chart I below shows why this is happening.  From 2000 to 2008, New Hampshire’s total population increased 6 percent, but in the same period the segment 55 to 64 jumped 50 percent, while the number of school-age children ages 5 to 17 declined by 7 percent.

The chart below also shows that an age turnaround may be underway.  The 13 percent rise in the 18 to 29 age group means that, if these young adults stay in New Hampshire, the number of families with children is likely to increase in the future and the state’s median age may stabilize or conceivably fall to a somewhat younger age.

 
  Source: US Census Bureau

These changes may mean an increase in demand for second homes and retirement homes for older residents and starter homes for the youngest families.  But it may mean less demand for trading-up homes because there will be a smaller number of families with older children who sometimes purchase larger or more suitable homes.

Over the next five to 10 years, we could see some Baby Boomer empty-nesters desiring to sell their big homes and buy smaller homes as they approach retirement.  But there’s growing evidence that Baby Boomers will delay retirement, so they may want to keep that larger home and use the extra space for a home office or two.  In any case, overall population growth is most likely to be slower than in past decades.

Survey results and April sales data

Results from the NHAR monthly survey that many of you so kindly fill out show that 42 percent of recent homebuyers were young families and 44 percent of homebuyers were first time homebuyers.  The survey results also show that 30 percent of buyers came from out of state, with a solid majority of those coming from Massachusetts.

The survey also shows that while three-quarters of buyers were purchasing a primary home, about one in four of them were buying a second home or purchasing it for investment purposes.

It’s understandable that investors would be making an appearance considering that the median sales price in April was below $200,000 in eight of 10 NH counties.  But it is also noteworthy that between March and April of this year, the number of homes sold increased in eight counties as well.

Compared to April of 2008, however, residential unit sales are off 11 percent statewide, and median sale price is down 15 percent. (Please see tables below for county detail.)

On a year-to-date basis, homes sold are down just 7 percent compared to last year, but median selling price was 16 percent below the first four months of 2008.

There is substantial variation by county, however.  Compared to 2008 residential unit sales have increased in Belknap, Grafton, Merrimack and Sullivan counties despite declining sales elsewhere.  But the sales in Grafton and Belknap counties came at a sharp discount compared to most other New Hampshire counties.

Table 1:  Residential (non-condo) unit sales for April 2009

County	Units sold April '09	% change 2008-09	Median price April '09	% change 2008-09
Belknap	42	8%	$183,500	-27%
Carroll	44	-8%	$177,000	-3%
Cheshire	45	-18%	$167,000	-7%
Coos	20	-38%	$37,450	-54%
Grafton	46	10%	$139,000	-26%
Hillsborough	192	-21%	$221,875	-13%
Merrimack	76	9%	$199,500	-16%
Rockingham	180	-6%	$265,250	-13%
Strafford	60	-24%	$180,500	-17%
Sullivan	34	21%	$126,000	-22%
Statewide	739	-11%	$204,900	-15%

 Table II:  Cumulative residential (non-condo) unit sales January-April 2009

     Source:  Northern New England Real Estate Network